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Prediction for CME (2021-10-17T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-17T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17994/-1
CME Note: Faint halo in SOHO LASCO/C2, more clearly visible in the W in STEREO A COR2. May be associated with a filament eruption faintly visible near N30W10 in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2021-10-17T07:39Z. | There was no clear arrival signature from this CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-20T06:37Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-10-17 14:18
 - Time at C2: 2021-10-17 09:36
 - Radial speed: 553.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: N05E01
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 571.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-10-20 06:37 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.03 hours)

Kp: [3.0 - 4.0]

Lead Time: 62.62 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-10-17T16:00Z

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